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Investigations into the World3 Model: Overall Model Behavior and Policy Conclusions

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Starting from the results obtained by study of each of its subsystems, the behavior of the overall World3 model is studied for standard and nonstandard conditions. The capital and resource subsystem appears to play a leading part, impressing its behavior of growth followed by decline on all other subsystems. This conclusion is confirmed by the results of total linearization. Equilibrium analysis reveals that, primarily owing to the negative impact of pollution on food production, the maximum sustainable "limits" of population and food production in World3 are much lower than can be expected from Meadows's assumptions on the maxima of the individual model variables. Using the insights so acquired, it is shown that model behavior can significantly be stabilized by a policy which is much simpler and less far-reaching than the recommendations advocated by the Meadows team.

Published in:

Systems, Man and Cybernetics, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:8 ,  Issue: 3 )

Date of Publication:

March 1978

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