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A Theory of Human Decisionmaking in Stochastic Estimation Tasks

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1 Author(s)

Human decisionmaking in stochastic estimation tasks is considered. Theoretical and experimental results from mathematical psychology are reviewed. Concepts from stochastic estimation theory are used to develop a theory of human decisionmaking that employs optimal stochastic estimators with a short-term memory model, at least one long-term model, and a method of trading off estimates derived from each model. Approaches to testing the theory as well as the theory's implications are discussed. Also, the limitations of a linear theory are considered.

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Systems, Man and Cybernetics, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:7 ,  Issue: 4 )