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A Model of the Human in a Cognitive Prediction Task

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1 Author(s)

The human decision maker's behavior when predicting future states of discrete linear dynamic systems driven by zero-mean Gaussian processes is modeled. The task is on a slow enough time scale that physiological constraints are insignificant compared with cognitive limitations. The model is basically a linear regression system identifier with a limited memory and noisy observations. Experimental data are presented and compared to the model.

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Systems, Man and Cybernetics, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:SMC-3 ,  Issue: 5 )