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The Effects of Scheduled Outages in Transmission System Reliability Evaluation

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1 Author(s)

For several components in the power transmission system, the probability distributions of the scheduled outage durations were found to be significantly different from the conventionally assumed exponential, Weibull, or log-normal distributions. Based on statistical data, a unique distribution was obtained for these durations. New equations were derived for the frequency and mean duration of the system failures due to coincident forced and scheduled outages. Computations for a sample system show that the application of a Markov model with the implied assumption of exponentially distributed scheduled down times may lead to significant errors in the system reliability indices.

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Power Apparatus and Systems, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:PAS-97 ,  Issue: 6 )