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A Stochastic Approach to Peak Power-Demand Forecasting in Electric Utility Systems

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1 Author(s)
Gupta, P.C. ; Systems Control, Inc.

A stochastic procedure is described for producing probabilistic forecasts of monthly peak system demands for up to three years ahead. The procedure is based on well-known concepts of prediction theory of stationary stochastic time series, which are developed further to predict those types of nonstationary series that can be reduced to a stationary series by a finite linear transformation. The procedure yields a technique for forecasting the evolving, nonstationary and seasonal peak power demands.

Published in:

Power Apparatus and Systems, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:PAS-90 ,  Issue: 2 )