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Uncertainties in modeling low probability/high consequence events: application to population projections and models of sea-level rise

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2 Author(s)
Shlyakhter, A.I. ; Dept. of Phys., Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA, USA ; Kammen, D.M.

The authors present a simple method for estimating uncertainty in modeling and forecasts based on an analysis of errors in old measurements and projections. They develop an empirical method of quantifying the uncertainty in a time-series of historical forecasts for which the actual values are now known. Probabilities of large deviations are parametrized by an exponential function with one free parameter. This formulation is illustrated by quantifying uncertainties in national population projections and by estimating the probability of extreme sea-level rise resulting from global warming

Published in:

Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, 1993. Proceedings., Second International Symposium on

Date of Conference:

25-28 Apr 1993