Approximate confidence bounds on Monte Carlo simulation results for energy production

Computer programs for electric energy production based on the Monte Carlo simulation technique are discussed. A method for estimating confidence bounds on simulation results is proposed. These confidence bounds are expressed as functions of the outage parameters of generating units and can be easily calculated. The method can also be used to determine the number of simulation realizations needed to achieve a specified degree of precision, which can result in savings in computing time and cost.<
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