By Topic

Maximum entropy aggregation of individual opinions

Sign In

Cookies must be enabled to login.After enabling cookies , please use refresh or reload or ctrl+f5 on the browser for the login options.

Formats Non-Member Member
$31 $13
Learn how you can qualify for the best price for this item!
Become an IEEE Member or Subscribe to
IEEE Xplore for exclusive pricing!
close button

puzzle piece

IEEE membership options for an individual and IEEE Xplore subscriptions for an organization offer the most affordable access to essential journal articles, conference papers, standards, eBooks, and eLearning courses.

Learn more about:

IEEE membership

IEEE Xplore subscriptions

2 Author(s)
Levy, W.B. ; Dept. of Neurological Surg., Virginia Univ., Charlottesville, VA, USA ; Delic, H.

This paper presents several formulations for aggregating opinions about the outcome of a future event-e.g., opinions in the form of probabilities are aggregated into a single probability. The approach used to derive these aggregation formulas is maximum entropy inference, with the assumption that the opinions and the event being predicted are joint random variables. As part of the presentation, the novel, axiomatically developed aggregation formula due to Bordley is used as a foil for contrasting and comparing the results developed here. It is shown that Bordley's result is overly restrictive when looked at in terms of maximum entropy derivations that are clearly using more information. Initially, we suppose that the opinions given on the future event are in the form of odds; then we consider the case where these opinions are in the form of probabilities; and finally, we reach a general formulation in which they could be odds, probabilities or even binary, yes/no, predictions of a future event with interactions between experts. In regard to this last point, the use of Darroch and Ratcliff's method in maximum entropy aggregation is sketched

Published in:

Systems, Man and Cybernetics, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:24 ,  Issue: 4 )