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Station reliability evaluation using a Monte Carlo approach

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2 Author(s)
Billinton, R. ; Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, Sask., Canada ; Lian, G.

A time sequential Monte Carlo simulation approach to reliability assessment of substations and switching stations is presented. The technique is illustrated by application to a practical configuration and is used to evaluate the station reliability indices which are then compared with those obtained using an analytical method. The study results show that the simulation method can provide acceptable indices. The simulation approach is also used to perform station sensitivity analysis by varying selected station component parameters. This type of analysis can play an important role in improving power system reliability, and is essential and necessary in the selection of critical components. The Monte Carlo procedure is utilized to develop probability distributions associated with the station reliability indices. It is shown how the simulation method can provide additional indices which cannot easily be obtained using an analytical method.<>

Published in:

Power Delivery, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:8 ,  Issue: 3 )