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A Gauss-Markov load model for application in risk evaluation and production simulation

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4 Author(s)
Breipohl, A.M. ; Oklahoma Univ., Norman, OK, USA ; Lee, F.N. ; Zhai, D. ; Adapa, R.

Load uncertainty contributes to system operational risk; thus the study of system operating reserve or unit commitment risk requires a load model that includes the uncertainty in load as well as the variation with time. The authors propose a Gauss-Markov load model. This random process model includes both the time variation and the uncertainty in load. This load model is used to predict, conditional on what is known at a previous hour, the mean and the variance of the system hourly load. This mean and variance are required for a system operating reserve study and a broad spectrum of production simulations. The proposed load model is described, the model is justified, and the model is illustrated via an example

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Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:7 ,  Issue: 4 )