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Assessing (Software) Reliability Growth Using a Random Coefficient Autoregressive Process and Its Ramifications

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2 Author(s)
Singpurwalla, Nozer D. ; Institute for Reliability and Risk Analysis, School of Engineering and Applied Science, George Washington University ; Soyer, R.

In this paper we motivate a random coefficient autoregressive process of order 1 for describing reliability growth or decay. We introduce several ramifications of this process, some of which reduce it to a Kalman Filter model. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach by applying these processes to some real life data on software failures. Finally, we make a pairwise comparison of the models in terms of the ratio of likelihoods of their predictive distributions, and identify the "best" model.

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Software Engineering, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:SE-11 ,  Issue: 12 )