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In this paper we provide a computational intelligence methodology for risk and disaster management using attitudinal and fuzzy modeling. We provide a paradigm representing the relationship among threats, events, control alternatives and losses. In evaluating a control alternative we look beyond the traditional expected value as a summary measure of expectation and the traditional variance as a measure of dispersion. We introduce a new measure of dispersion which incorporates the decision maker's attitude. We present a fuzzy model to use this attitudinal variance in conjunction with the attitudinal expected value in order to assess the overall value of control alternatives.
Fuzzy Systems, 2006 IEEE International Conference on
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