Room for a Thousand Flowers to Bloom

Market value for nascent goods can be unknown for a number of reasons. It can be discovered only through market experience. Does concentrated commercial leadership or dispersed commercial leadership more efficaciously explore value? Concentrated or dispersed commercial leadership describes whether a small or large range of firms, respectively, can commercialize potential services and products for a similar, though uncertain, technological opportunity. Dispersed commercial leadership explores the unknown more quickly than concentrated leadership. Most new firms exploring a technological opportunity do not survive a market test. A wider variety of firms increases the chances that at least one will survive. Beyond selection, more dispersed commercial leadership has another, more subtle effect. It increases the likelihood that a so-called contrarian reaches the marketplace sooner. This effect can be readily visible if the contrarian quickly spurs innovative responses from established firms who otherwise would not have taken any action