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Accurate detection of direct path signal is essential for ranging to the full capabilities of ultra-wideband (UWB) signals. However, the possibility of a large error can be a challenging problem for accurate ranging and positioning. Three different kinds of potential errors encountered in correlation-based time-of-arrival (TOA) estimation are introduced, and an approximate analysis of them is posed. Upper and lower bounding technique is applied to the variance of one of them, namely an early false alarm error. Probability of occurrence of the other two kinds of error is found using the channel statistics, and the mean square of them is evaluated by simulation method. Discussion of the effect of multiple-access schemes on the accuracy of UWB TOA estimation is initiated.