Stochastic mathematic model of the fighting personnel and its application in effectiveness evaluation for small arm system

Fighting effectiveness evaluation plays an important role in study on the strategic weapon equipment development, especially on the aspects of design, improvement and reasoning. Usually only the weapon performance parameters and fighting environment are considered in the fighting effectiveness analysis, meanwhile the influence factors of fighting personnel are seldom taken into account. However in fact, the fighting personnel influence factors can not be ignored as they affect the fighting effectiveness for small arm system at a great extent during the real battle process, especially during the process of the army unit. The influence factors of the fighting personnel are uncertain and stochastic, which mainly include the morale, stature, handling gun skill and fighting experience, etc. Aimed at the characteristic of the real battle for the army unit, the stochastic mathematic model for the influence factors of fighting personnel is built, in which the Monte-Carlo method of probability and statistics theory are used, the stochastic factors of morale, stature, handling gun skill and fighting experience are transformed into the different stochastic sequences obeying normal distribution. The established mathematic model for the fighting personnel is successfully applied in the effectiveness evaluation for small arm system. An example of a whole fighting progress for an army unit is presented. The simulation experimentation is carried out for the effectiveness evaluation, in which a kind of small arm is chosen, the model based on WSEIAC (weapon system effectiveness industry advisory committee) adopted, the Kolmogorov onward equation of random process theory used, the analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics theory combined. Therefore the model and method for fighting effectiveness analysis are established under the consideration of the influence factors of fighting personnel. Finally the statistical values of the fighting effectiveness are got at the different fighting stages which include march, developing, constructing defense, firing and moving. The study of the works provides basic technical base and foundation for reasoning the manufacture necessity, tactical technique measure, use method and military worthiness for small arm system. The results indicate that the established model and mentioned method have their feasibility and practicability.