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This paper presented a hybrid neural network model to integrate information entropy theory and ant colony clustering for load forecasting. As short-term load forecasting is a complex problem with multifactor in power system, if all these factors are used as inputs of neural network, it will not only result in complicated network structure, but also long learning time and inaccurate prediction. First, information entropy theory is used to select relevant ones from all load influential factors, the results are used as inputs of neural network. It can reduce irrelevant load influential factors and the input variables of the input layer for neural network. Next, considering the features of power load and reduced influential factors, using ant colony clustering method, the practical historical load data within one year is divided into several groups. A separate module based on neural networks models each group. Then, the typical samples in each clustered group were selected as the training set for the separate improved Elman neural network which is a kind of globally feed forward locally recurrent network model with distinguished dynamical characteristics. According to the procedures, the reduced input variables and the typical training samples for each neural network can be gotten. Thus the neural network forecasting model based on information entropy and ant colony clustering can be constructed which can effectively reduce the training time and improve convergent speed. During the forecasting process, pattern recognizing is employed to activate the corresponding module for hourly load forecasting. The presented model was tested using Hebei Province daily load data, and the satisfactory results were obtained.
Machine Learning and Cybernetics, 2005. Proceedings of 2005 International Conference on (Volume:8 )
Date of Conference: 18-21 Aug. 2005