Design of distributed energy systems based on probabilistic analysis

In this paper a design methodology of 'distributed' energy systems is presented. These are defined as energy systems with unregulated distributed generators connected to the lower voltage levels. The cornerstone in their design is the steady-state analysis of distribution systems under uncertainty in energy in energy generation and consumption. Based on this definition, the structure of a system-design tool is proposed. The system is described by the steady-state model, while all different types of distributed generators (dispatchable or nondispatchable technology concepts) are treated in a unifying manner through probabilistic modelling. The modelling of the interdependence between the random input variables is treated by introducing the concepts of comonotonicity, countermonotonicity and independence between distributed generations and distributed consumptions as stochastic bounds describing extreme statistical dependence between the input random variables.