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Research on mathematical transmission model of SARS based on molecular kinematics

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5 Author(s)
Li Jinping ; Sch. of Inf. Sci. & Eng., Jinan Univ., China ; Yin Jianqin ; Cao Aizeng ; Dong Jiwen
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Based on molecular kinematics and other related jobs, an explicit analytical mathematical model about severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the similar epidemics is put forward. New factors are considered such as resistibility of individuals and system of SARS checkpoints and health registration. Simulation based on molecular kinematics shows the analytical model is able to describe the dissemination of SARS correctly before and after the applications of various control measures, and therefore is able to predict the future epidemics. Application of the model to Beijing's epidemics presents satisfactory results. Principle of superposition is pointed out in determining the value of R in open model. Another useful conclusion is that the system of checkpoints and health registration plays critically important role. Drawbacks of the model are also discussed.

Published in:

Intelligent Control and Automation, 2004. WCICA 2004. Fifth World Congress on  (Volume:6 )

Date of Conference:

15-19 June 2004