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Innovation diffusion: predicting success of system development

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3 Author(s)
Thomson, A. ; Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forestry Service, Canada ; Haggith, M. ; Ravi Prabhu

To guide technology transfer, a simulation model of the innovation diffusion process is developed in which the five attributes of an innovation (relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability and observability) interact with adopter characteristics. These attributes are combined into a measure of innovation "fitness" to modify adoption rate. A measure of "exposure" is also developed to integrate time, communication channels and prior adoption to predict adoption rate. Behavior of the simulation is explored in relation to sparse data sets, especially in the field of information technology.

Published in:

Database and Expert Systems Applications, 2004. Proceedings. 15th International Workshop on

Date of Conference:

30 Aug.-3 Sept. 2004