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Data retention in flash memories is limited by anomalous charge loss. In this work, this phenomenon is modeled with a percolation concept. An analytical model is constructed that relates the charge-loss distribution of moving bits in flash memories with the geometric distribution of oxide traps. The oxide is characterized by a single parameter, the trap density. Combined with a trap-to-trap direct tunneling model, the physical parameters of the electron traps involved in the leakage mechanism are determined. Flash memory failure rate predictions for different oxide qualities, thicknesses and tunnel-oxide voltages are calculated.