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A probabilistic model is developed for the characterisation of crosstalk sensitivity to random fluctuations of conductors in a bundle cross-section. A uniform and lossless three-conductor transmission line (TL) is used for the definition of generator and victim circuits, with general loading conditions. A novel circuit model for crosstalk is developed, in which the victim circuit embeds all the interference effects due to the presence of the generator circuit. Such effects are represented by a voltage and a current lumped noise-source and a distributed-parameter passive two-port. Under the weak-coupling assumption, and by assuming random fluctuations of the generator wire in the TL cross-section, closed-form expressions for the mean value and variance of crosstalk voltages are derived, valid both at low-frequencies and in the TL standing-wave region. These closed-form crosstalk estimators extend previous results, limited to electrically short TLs. All the theoretical developments are checked via a numerical repeated-run analysis.