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This paper presents a probabilistic-approach-based reliability prediction model of semiconductor light emitting devices. Using this model with given initial light-emitting performance and degradation behavior otherwise determined by experiment, the reliability function of the devices is obtained, and the results correlate well with experimental results. (Modeling the initial light-emitting performance and the degradation behavior is still an on-going effort and is not included in this paper. Eventually, this model will include both parts of the modeling to provide complete analytical results of reliability prediction.) This study is a step to develop a complete physics-of-failure-based reliability prediction methodology for semiconductor light-emitting devices. It provides an approach and proves the feasibility of determining a reliability function based on fundamental parameters of device performance.