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Social conflict between people insisting on environment and people insisting on development comes to be seen frequently. Especially, this tendency is conspicuous in water resources development because its influence is generally widespread. The probability of such conflict should be thought as risk of the project. Management of such conflicts must be considered on any future development project to avoid their intensification and prolongation. In this paper, a mathematical model is built up to analyze such conflict and to see what kind of equilibrium states could occur. The model mainly consists of two parts. The first one concerns changing process of strategy, which interest parties would choose. The second one sets the model about preference of interest parties, which is needed to set of pay-off matrix in the first part of the model. Furthermore, the model is applied to Nagara River problem as a case study.