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The pairwise probability of error for trained unitary space-time modulation over channels with a constant specular component and time-varying diffuse fading is derived. We consider the case where the diffuse channel varies from sample to sample within a symbol according to a first-order AR model. Our previous results are reviewed which show that the effect of the time-varying diffuse channel can be described by an effective SNR that decreases with time. We derive pairwise probability of error expressions using these effective SNR values, which are shown by simulation to describe the performance accurately.