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A set of calculated channel parameters are postulated for a 2800-km HF ionospheric -mode propagation path to organize error sequences into stationary samples. Measurements of the single sideband-frequency-shift keying (SSB-FSK) binary error-free run distributions are used with the parameters to obtain stationary Markov chain transition probabilities. A relation between the transition probabilities and the average error probability is verified for the HF channel model. A statistical analysis of error probability and error-free run distribution variation with calculated parameter values suggests that the Markov chain transition probabilities are a function of these parameters.