A future of function or failure? [CMOS gate oxide scaling]

Transistors are scaled in each successive technology generation to increase circuit speed and to improve packing density. However, as the devices get smaller and the gate oxides thinner, ensuring their reliability becomes increasingly difficult. The simple question is: based on the current reliability specifications, will 99.99% of the ICs produced today with given technology remain functional for at least ten years into the future? This is a question that device engineers, circuit designers, and system architects must grapple with as we move into the unknown territory of sub-0.1 μm CMOS technology.