Estimating the probability of failure of equipment as a result of direct lightning strikes on transmission lines

The paper provides a method for estimating the risk of failure of an apparatus as a result of direct lightning strikes on transmission lines. To meet the requirements of quick and low-variability estimation of the risk of failure, an adaptive strategy based on successive approximations of the equipment response surface in the vicinity of the most probable failure point has been developed. The proposed procedure has been applied to a test case concerning substation equipment.