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This paper presents a theory for role-playing simulation games intended to support analysts (and trainees) with generating and testing alternative competing hypotheses on how to influence world conflict situations. Simulated leaders and followers capable of playing these games are implemented in a cognitive modeling framework, called the Performance Moderator Function Server (PMFserv), which covers value systems, personality and cultural factors, emotions, relationships, perception, stress/coping style, and decision making. Of direct interest, as Section I-A explains, is codification and synthesis of best-of-breed social-science models within PMFserv to improve the internal validity of agent implementations. Sections II and III present this for leader profiling instruments and group-membership decision making, respectively. Section IV then offers two real-world case studies (The Third Crusade and SE Asia Today) where agent models are subjected to Turing and correspondence tests under each case study. In sum, substantial effort on game realism, best-of-breed social-science models, and agent validation efforts is essential if analysis and training tools are to help explore cultural issues and alternative ways to influence outcomes. Such exercises, in turn, are likely to improve the state of the science as well.
Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans, IEEE Transactions on (Volume:37 , Issue: 6 )
Date of Publication: Nov. 2007