Interpreting digital pheromones as probability fields

Stigmergic agent-based systems often use digital pheromones, scalar variables indexed to the agents' environment, as a means of coordination among agents. These fields are potentially valuable in another way, as a source of information to programs external to the MAS. In many cases, and in particular in the polyagent modeling construct, pheromones can be interpreted as probability fields, allowing inferences about the range of behaviors accessible to the system from a single execution. We motivate this interpretation of digital pheromone fields, develop the mathematics that supports their analysis, and illustrate their use in a battlefield simulation.