Simulation of Nigerian Development: Northern Region Model

A multidisciplinary team is currently studying the applicability of computer simulation to problems of agricultural sector development in Nigeria. The program has as one of its major objectives the exploration of simulation as a tool for aiding policy makers of that country concerned with meeting the nutritional needs of the population, generation of foreign exchange earnings and raw material inputs for industrialization, and other important questions relating to long-run development of the agricultural sector and its interaction with nonagricultural development. While the project is localized in a particular country, models are being developed with adaptability to other developing areas of the world as a major objective. To date, a model of the northern region of the country has been developed which will be linked to a southern model currently under construction. The structure of the northern model is described in some detail as an example of the application of simulation to a macroeconomic system. Preliminary tests of this model are discussed and an assessment of the capabilities and limitations of this approach to planning development in emerging countries is given.