Belief modeling for maritime surveillance

In maritime surveillance, the volume of information to be processed is very large and there is a great deal of uncertainty about the data. There are many vessels at sea at every point in time, and the vast majority of them pose no threat to security. Sifting through all of the benign activity to find unusual activities is a difficult problem. The problem is made even more difficult by the fact that the available data about vessel activities is both incomplete and inconsistent. In order to manage this uncertainty, automated anomaly detection software can be very useful in the early detection of threats to security. This paper introduces a high-level architecture for an anomaly detection system based on a formal model of beliefs with respect to each entity in some domain of interest. In this framework, the system has beliefs about the intentions of each vessel in the maritime domain. If the vessel behaves in an unexpected manner, these intentions are revised and a human operations centre worker is notified. This approach is flexible, scalable, and easily manages inconsistent information. Moreover, the approach has the pragmatic advantage that it uses expert information to inform decision making, but the required information is easily obtained through simple ranking exercises.