An analytical approach to probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (for power systems)

An analytical method, called APUA, to calculate the properties of an algebraic function of random variables in a power system is presented. The principle of the method is briefly described and compared to other techniques. Two examples of application are presented. The results are compared to those given by Monte Carlo simulation and first-order Taylor series. The method seems to give reasonable results and it can be used to estimate the total uncertainty caused by many variables or by a subset of them.<
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