Bit-patterned media (BPM) is a promising approach to push back the onset of the superparamagnetic limit faced by conventional continuous granular media. Today, BPM islands can be fabricated at densities higher than can be characterized by existing methods and full bit-patterned media recording (BPMR) is still a long way off. In this work, we rely on simulations to predict how such islands would perform in a real recording scenario. The grain flipping probability (GFP) model is trained via micromagnetic simulations and reproduces the magnetic profiles used to generate readback signals for channel simulations. The geometrical parameters to the micromagnetic simulations, such as the island size variations and island position jitter are characterized from measurements of islands fabricated via e-beam at various channel densities.