File access prediction with adjustable accuracy

We describe a novel on-line file access predictor, Recent Popularity, capable of rapid adaptation to workload changes while simultaneously predicting more events with greater accuracy than prior efforts. We distinguish the goal of predicting the most events accurately from the goal of offering the most accurate predictions (when declining to Offer a prediction is acceptable). For this purpose we present two distinct measures of accuracy, general and specific accuracy, corresponding to these goals. We describe how our new predictor and an earlier effort, Noah, can trade the number of events predicted for prediction accuracy by modifying simple parameters. When prediction accuracy is strictly more important than the number of predictions offered, trace-based evaluation demonstrates error rates as low as 2%, while offering predictions for more than 60% of all file access events.