Using agent-based modeling to capture airpower strategic effects

Airpower's strength lies in quickly striking the enemy directly where they are vulnerable while being unhampered by geography and surface forces. Airpower theory suggests the effects of these strikes propagate throughout an opponent's military system, yielding catastrophic output or strategic effects. Despite this theory being a cornerstone of US Air Force doctrine, current Air Force models do not seem to capture airpower's inherent strength. Since these models are used to support budgetary decision making, the US may not be funding the airpower capability it needs. The article focuses on developing an approach to capture strategic effects in models. The approach establishes a basis for the effects in military theory as well as the field of complex adaptive systems. Using these concepts as a foundation, a simulation model called the Hierarchical Interactive Theater Model (HITM) is constructed and exercised. HITM output depicts a cascading deterioration in force effectiveness and eventual total collapse resulting from destruction of vital targets. This outcome is consistent with the expected results of strikes against centers of gravity defined in Air Force doctrine, suggesting agent based modeling is an effective way to simulate strategic effects at the operational level of war.