Reliability Forecasting & Investment Optimization

This paper describes a reliability forecasting approach developed by EPCOR Distribution & Transmission Inc. (EPCOR) and METSCO Energy Solutions Inc. (METSCO) which allows for the system-wide reliability impacts (SAIFI, SAIDI) of varying capital investment scenarios to be quantified and forecasted over a ten-year period. This approach was successfully used by EPCOR's asset managers to optimize their decision making & resulting investments with an aim of meeting specific reliability requirements. Statistical high-confidence correlations were identified between discrete forms of capital investments, external factors and EPCOR's historical reliability data, in order to identify key reliability drivers that influence the forecast. This approach ultimately allows EPCOR to evaluate, compare and contrast various long-term investment strategies, such that the utility is able to achieve an optimal balance through a mix of investment types, expenditures and reliability outcomes.