Analyzing the effect of power supply net capacity on electricity sales based on growth curve

Grasping the effect of power supply net capacity on electricity sales has a great significance to analyze the trend of electricity sales accurately. Based on correlation analysis of historical data of the first, second, third industrial and residential electricity sales and power supply net capacity of power company, this paper presents a method of analyzing the effect of power supply net capacity on electricity sales by growth curve. The method eliminates the effect of seasonal factor and random factor of power supply net capacity and electricity sales by X13 seasonal adjustment, calculates the leading time of power supply net capacity ahead of electricity sales by dynamic time warping, calculates load operation ratio of power supply net capacity by growth curve. The method is used for quantitative analysis in studying electricity sales' changes caused by power supply net capacity. The experimental results show that the proposed method can be a good measure of the impact of power supply net capacity on electricity sales, the model can also be used to guide the analysis of the trend of electricity sales and provide effective data support for decision making of power companies.