An assessment of energy deficits in the future electricity system of the United Kingdom with a significant penetration of intermittent renewable generators

Minor energy deficits occur frequently in all electricity systems. These deficits are caused by fluctuations in the demand and generation from the predicted values, either because of faults or errors in forecasting. As the level of intermittent generation increases in the future, with the widespread installation of wind and PV, these forecasting errors are expected to multiply in frequency and scale. This paper demonstrates the severity of this problem in Great Britain using National Grid's Future Energy Scenarios over the next decade. The weak points during the day are identified and the effect of certain faults are analysed. It is demonstrated the future system will be unable to maintain the frequency within the current operational limits unless the generator profiles change to reflect the new system requirements.