Research on optimal equivalent capacity of wind farms based on probabilistic forecasting for power system planning

Issues regarding to the benefit evaluation of wind farms is investigated. Optimal equivalent capacity of wind farms is proposed. By utilizing nonparametric conditional kernel density estimation technique, a probabilistic density distribution of wind output, which reflects the short-term changing of wind power, is formed. Furthermore, combining with production operating simulation, solution method to calculate the optimal equivalent capacity of wind farms is constructed. Proposed method fully considers the sequence and stochastic characters of wind output, and the corresponding result verifies the accuracy and effectiveness of this method.