Reliability evaluation of distributed integrated energy systems via Markov chain Monte Carlo

Distributed integrated energy system (DIES) is conductive to alleviate the energy shortage and environment pollution. As a basis for planning and operation, reliability evaluation is important for the development of DIES. Firstly, this paper established a reliability evaluation model of DIES based on an energy hub model, which can describe the complex interconnection between different power supply subsystems. Then, the impacts of dynamic behavior of thermostatically controlled load on the reliability evaluation of DIES is analyzed based on an electric water heater (EWH) model. And the reliability evaluation of DIES is carried out based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. The feasibility of the proposed method is validated by extensive case studies.