Load estimation based on self-organizing maps and Bayesian networks for microgrids design in rural zones

Microgrids are suitable electrical solutions for providing energy in rural zones. However, it is challenging to propose in advance a good design of the microgrid because the electrical load is difficult to estimate due to its highly dependence of the residential consumption. In this paper, a novel estimation methodology for the residential load profiles is proposed. Socio-demographic data and electrical power consumption are used to generate significant knowledge about the load behavior. Socio-demographic data are used as input for a neural network called Self-Organizing Maps (SOM). The SOM proposes a way to group dwelling according to their different features. Moreover, a probabilistic model based on Bayesian networks incorporates daily variations of the electrical load, simulating the behavior of the electrical appliances. The methodology, as a whole, is applied to a case study in a rural community located in Chile. The methodology is easily adaptable to other rural communities.