Functional assessment system of solar power plant energy production

Renewable energy development all over the world led to significant growth of solar power plants' installed capacity, including United Power System (UPS) of Russia. The stochastic solar generation facilities participate in wholesale or retail electric energy markets, depending on the installed capacity of the power plant, so the problems of operational, short-term and long-term forecasting need to be addressed. The specific nature of such forecasts requires consideration of multiple factors, related both to weather conditions and to the design features of solar power plant. The paper provides detailed description of hybrid physical-statistical model of solar power plant output forecasting. On the basis of retrospective analysis of solar radiation and meteorological datasets, the accuracy of the model can be estimated, which makes it possible to evaluate the applicability and effectiveness in real operating conditions.