Public transport induced demand estimation with application of Fuzzy Inference System

In the paper there will be presented results of questionnaire surveys conducted in few Polish cities. According to the questionnaire, it was possible to define changes in demand and obtained results will be helpful in estimation of induced trips rate. Modelling of the induced trip quantity requires well developed input data base with respect to conditions of personal decisions undertaken by the user. Very often, decision process is not explicitly defined and derived from personal preferences which affect significant dispersion of the travel behaviors. It seems, that promising tool would be application of the Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) to model induced demand. The basis of the FIS is operations on membership functions (MF) and the most significant part of the model is estimation of the MF shape. In the paper there will be presented structure of the Fuzzy Inference System for induced trip modeling; definition of the necessary input data; estimated shapes of the membership function and also final formula for estimation of expected induced trip share. Important part of the paper will be devoted to verification of obtained results using Visum simulation model of the city and real tram line investment.