Managing energy risk — A case study of Bulgaria with no nuclear power

This work investigates the impact of no license renewal for both reactors of Bulgaria's Kozloduy nuclear power plant. High spatial and temporal resolution power flow simulations for ten interconnected countries in central and southeastern Europe are conducted for 2016-2020. To account for new wind capacity, a novel approach that optimizes wind turbine placement in each new wind power plant and ranks the wind plants in terms of financial performance is used. It is shown that as the reactors are decommissioned, generation in Bulgaria shifts towards coal. CO2 emissions increase by 20% in 2020 compared to 2013. Electricity prices increase by 10% and 25%, respectively, with one and two reactors shutdown. Bulgaria changes from being a net exporter to an importer. Nevertheless, security of supply in terms of covering demand through imports is not compromised.