Probabilistic loadflow methods for energy management schemes in distribution grids

In this paper probabilistic load flow methods with the application in energy management schemes are compared and evaluated. The focus is set on residential distribution grids with high photovoltaic (PV) penetration and therefore increasing problems with high grid voltage. The investigated methods are a nonlinear monte carlo simulation based on the newton-raphson algorithm, a linearized monte carlo simulation and a linear analytic solution to the probabilistic load flow problem. In addition a correction scheme for the linear analytic solution is proposed to increase the estimation accuracy. These methods are compared and evaluated to identify the trade off between computational complexity and accuracy, which is of special interest for the use within energy management schemes.