Evaluation of unit commitment based on intraday few-hours-ahead photovoltaic generation forecasts to reduce the supply-demand imbalance

Japanese power systems are expected to increase the installation of photovoltaic (PV) generation in the future. We have developed operation and control methods for future power systems based on PV generation forecasting. In our previous study, we proposed a supply-demand operation method based on the intraday few-hours-ahead forecasts of the PV power output and concluded that the unit commitment (UC) of thermal power generators needs to be modified to reduce the supply-demand imbalance. In this study, we developed a new supply-demand operation method in which the UC is repeatedly modified based on intraday few-hours-ahead forecasts. We evaluated the effectiveness of the proposed method by long-term (2 months) numerical simulations of a large power system model for Kanto Japan. Actual hourly data on the load demand and solar irradiation were used in the simulations.