An academic study of roadmap of 5G implementation in Indonesia

Based on the roadmap of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), 5G mobile technology standard will be published in 2020. In this paper the timeline of 5G implementation in Indonesia has been designed by using technological forecasting that is Gompertz model. The roadmap of 5G implementation consist of three milestones for mobile technology implementation which are: 4G start in 2015, 4.5G start in 2020 and 5G start in 2025. The 5G technology will reach the inflection point in 2027 and 98% of penetration in 2035. The 5G mobile spectrum demand has been calculated, which are: in 2025 the demand is 83 MHz using macro-cell configuration and 17 MHz using small-cell configuration, in 2026 the demand is 380 MHz (using macro-cell) and 80 MHz (using small-cell), in 2027 the demand is 1.027 MHz (using macro-cell) and 216 MHz (using small-cell), in 2028 the demand is 2.024 MHz MHz (using macro-cell) and 426 MHz (using small-cell), and in 2029 the demand is 3.298 MHz (using macro-cell) and 693 MHz (using small-cell). The amount of IMT band used in Indonesia is 490,75 MHz. Using the assumption that all IMT band are assigned for 5G technology, then there will be a deficit of radio frequency spectrum that is needed by 5G technology. It start in 2026 for macro-cell and in 2029 for small-cell. To meet the spectrum demand the short term, middle term and long term solution is urgently needed.