An approach for safety assessment in UAS operations applying stochastic fast-time simulation with parameter variation

This paper presents an approach for safety assessment in unmanned aerial system (UAS) operations that uses stochastic fast-time simulation and selected published ground impact fatality/casualty models to calculate fatality risk. The application of simulation allows a sensitivity analysis measuring how different aspects and phases of a UAS operation impact the risk calculations for each of the ground impact models. Specifically, this approach consists of modelling and simulating UAS operations over a defined populated region applying stochastic parameters, such as flight track dispersion, altitude, failure rate, performance variation, and latency due to situational awareness (e.g. BVLOS). Then, published ground impact models are applied to determine the risk in terms of fatalities. This process provides risk metrics in a range, where it is then left to the decision makers as to what constitutes acceptable risk in a given situation.