Research on prediction model and method for equipment state and fault in test range

The state and the fault prediction for the measure & control equipment in the test range plays an important role in the test and evaluation for the large-scale weapon system. It is also a research development in the state or fault process region. The objective of this paper is to address a state or fault prediction method for the equipment in the test range, which is combined with the physical network relationship for the predicted equipment and the mathematical analysis for the monitored state. According to the life rules of the electronic parts and the components of the predicted equipment, a distribution function for the abnormality state is constructed, and then the state prediction method for the discrete variables is especially researched. The effectiveness of the proposed prediction model and method is validated by a large optical system. The state or fault prediction model can realize the long-distance manage & control for the test range's equipment, and can also provide the technical support for enhancing the equipment reliability during the test task.