Capacity reserve assessment using system well-being analysis

Deterministic methods are widely used in operating reserve assessment and in small isolated power system capacity planning. These approaches do not normally include any explicit recognition of system risk and do not provide comparable risks for systems of different size or composition. Many large power systems, therefore, use probabilistic methods for generation adequacy evaluation. The reluctance to utilize the existing probabilistic techniques in both large and small systems dictates a need to create a bridge between the two different approaches. This paper presents a new probabilistic method designated as 'system well-being analysis', which incorporates the accepted deterministic criteria in the definition of 'healthy' and 'marginal' power system states. This paper illustrates methodologies to evaluate the system well-being indices of practical systems and describes how they can be used in the assessment of power system capacity reserves.